Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Research Articles

[Clinical characteristics of children with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection in Yunnan].

Objective: To investigate the clinical characteristics of 130 children with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection in Yunnan province after the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and analyze the risk factors for mortality. Methods: This study is a retrospective case summary that analyzed the demographic data, underlying diseases, clinical diagnoses, disease outcomes, and laboratory results of 130 children with severe COVID-19 infections admitted to nine top-tier hospitals in Yunnan Province from December 2022 to March 2023. According to the prognosis, the patients were divided into survival group and death group. The clinical and laboratory data between the two groups were compared, and the risk factors of death were evaluated. The χ2 test and Mann-Whitney U test were employed to compare between groups, while Spearman correlation test and multiple Logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors for death. The predictive value of independent risk factors was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: The 130 severe patients included 80 males and 50 females with an onset age of 28.0 (4.5, 79.5) months. There were 97 cases in the survival group and 33 cases in the death group with no significant differences in gender and age between the two groups (P>0.05). Twenty-five cases (19.2%) out of the 130 patients had underlying diseases, and the number with underlying diseases was significantly higher in death group than in survival group (36.4% (12/33) vs. 13.4%(13/97), χ2=8.36, P=0.004). The vaccination rate in the survival group was significantly higher than that in the death group (86.1% (31/36) vs. 7/17, χ2=9.38, P=0.002). A total of 42 cases (32.3%) of the 130 patients were detected to be infected with other pathogens, but there was no significant difference in the incidence of co-infection between the death group and the survival group (39.3%(13/33) vs. 29% (29/97), χ2=1.02, P>0.05). Among the 130 cases, severe respiratory cases were the most common 66 cases (50.8%), followed by neurological severe illnesses 34 cases (26.2%) and circulatory severe cases 13 cases (10%). Compared to the survival group, patients in the death group had a significantly higher levels of neutrophil, ferritin, procalcitonin, alanine aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, creatine kinase isoenzyme, B-type natriuretic peptide, interleukin-6 and 10 (6.7 (4.0, 14.0) vs. 3.0 (1.6, 7.0)×109/L, 479 (298, 594) vs. 268 (124, 424) μg/L, 4.8 (1.7, 10.6) vs. 2.0 (1.1, 3.1) μg/L, 66 (20, 258) vs. 23 (15, 49) U/L, 464 (311, 815) vs. 304 (252, 388) g/L, 71(52, 110) vs. 24(15, 48) U/L, 484 (160, 804) vs. 154 (26, 440) ng/L, 43 (23, 102) vs. 19 (13, 27) ng/L, 216 (114, 318) vs. 86 (45, 128) ng/L, Z=-4.21, -3.67, -3.76, -3.31, -3.75, -5.74, -3.55, -4.65, -5.86, all P<0.05). The correlated indexes were performed by multivariate Logistic regression and the results showed that vaccination was a protective factor from death in severe cases (OR=0.01, 95%CI 0-0.97, P=0.049) while pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (PSOFA) (OR=3.31, 95%CI 1.47-7.47, P=0.004), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR=1.56, 95%CI 1.05-2.32, P=0.029) and D dimer (OR=1.49, 95%CI 1.00-1.02, P=0.033) were independent risk factors for death (all P<0.05). The area under the curve of the three independent risk factors for predicting death were 0.86 (95%CI 0.79-0.94), 0.89 (95%CI 0.84-0.95) and 0.87 (95%CI 0.80-0.94), all P<0.001, and the cut-off values were 4.50, 3.66 and 4.69 mg/L, respectively. Conclusions: Severe SARS-CoV-2 infection can occur in children of all ages, primarily affecting the respiratory system, but can also infect the nervous system, circulatory system or other systems. Children who died had more severe inflammation, tissue damage and coagulation disorders. The elevations of PSOFA, NLR and D dimer were independent risk factors for death in severe children.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of hand-foot-and-mouth disease and varicella in a general hospital in Guangzhou, China

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) and varicella treated in a general hospital in Guangzhou, China between 2017 and 2023 to evaluate the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the epidemiology of HFMD and varicella in Guangzhou. The epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and varicella before (2017–2019), during (2020–2022), and after (2023) the pandemic were compared. In total, 1731 cases of HFMD and 1043 cases of varicella were reported before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017–2019), with average reporting rates of 0.08% and 0.05%, respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), the number of reported cases of HFMD and varicella decreased to 571 and 389, respectively, with average reporting rates of 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively, which were significantly different from those in the pre-pandemic period (P &lt; 0.001). In the post-pandemic period (2023), the reporting rate of HFMD was 0.07%, showing a marked increase compared with that in 2022 (P &lt; 0.001). However, the difference in the reporting rate of varicella in 2023 did not differ significantly from that in 2022 (P =0.204). These results suggest that non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic might be helpful in preventing the spread of HFMD and varicella.

Model analysis and data validation of structured prevention and control interruptions of emerging infectious diseases.

The design of optimized non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is critical to the effective control of emergent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, A/H1N1 and COVID-19 and to ensure that numbers of hospitalized cases do not exceed the carrying capacity of medical resources. To address this issue, we formulated a classic SIR model to include a close contact tracing strategy and structured prevention and control interruptions (SPCIs). The impact of the timing of SPCIs on the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals and on the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas (i.e. implementing a dynamic zero-case policy) were analyzed numerically and theoretically. These analyses revealed that to minimize the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals, the optimal time to initiate SPCIs is when they can control the peak value of a second rebound of the epidemic to be equal to the first peak value. More individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention during SPCIs. The longer the duration of the intervention and the stronger the contact tracing intensity during SPCIs, the more effective they are in shortening the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas. The dynamic evolution of the number of isolated and non-isolated individuals, including two peaks and long tail patterns, have been confirmed by various real data sets of multiple-wave COVID-19 epidemics in China. Our results provide important theoretical support for the adjustment of NPI strategies in relation to a given carrying capacity of medical resources.

An RNA-hydrolyzing recombinant minibody prevents both influenza A virus and coronavirus in co-infection models

With the lifting of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions, the resurgence of common viral respiratory infections was recorded in several countries worldwide. It facilitates viral co-infection, further burdens the already over-stretched healthcare systems. Racing to find co-infection-associated efficacy therapeutic agents need to be rapidly established. However, it has encountered numerous challenges that necessitate careful investigation. Here, we introduce a potential recombinant minibody-associated treatment, 3D8 single chain variable fragment (scFv), which has been developed as a broad-spectrum antiviral drug that acts via its nucleic acid catalytic and cell penetration abilities. In this research, we demonstrated that 3D8 scFv exerted antiviral activity simultaneously against both influenza A viruses (IAVs) and coronaviruses in three established co-infection models comprising two types of coronaviruses [beta coronavirus—human coronavirus OC43 (hCoV-OC43) and alpha coronavirus—porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV)] in Vero E6 cells, two IAVs [A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 H1N1 (H1N1/PR8) and A/X-31 (H3N2/X-31)] in MDCK cells, and a combination of coronavirus and IAV (hCoV-OC43 and adapted-H1N1) in Vero E6 cells by a statistically significant reduction in viral gene expression, proteins level, and approximately around 85%, 65%, and 80% of the progeny of ‘hCoV-OC43–PEDV’, ‘H1N1/PR8–H3N2/X-31’, and ‘hCoV-OC43–adapted-H1N1’, respectively, were decimated in the presence of 3D8 scFv. Taken together, we propose that 3D8 scFv is a promising broad-spectrum drug for treatment against RNA viruses in co-infection.

Factors Influencing Compliance With Social Distancing as a Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Before Vaccine Availability During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study in South Korea.

This study aimed to identify factors influencing compliance with social distancing, a key nonpharmaceutical intervention during the early stages of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The study population comprised 182 758 Koreans who participated in the 2020 Community Health Survey. Personal characteristics were classified into sociodemographic, health behavioral, and psychosocial factors, and factors associated with social distancing compliance were identified. Health behaviors and psychosocial factors were highly related to compliance with social distancing. Approximately 13% of smokers were less likely to practice physical distancing and 50% of high-risk drinkers were less likely to limit going out or attending gatherings and events. Higher concern about COVID-19 and a more positive perception of the government's response policy were associated with a higher compliance with social distancing. Strategic public health policies considering the characteristics of the public are needed to enhance compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions during disease outbreaks lacking effective treatments and vaccines.

Common Seasonal Pathogens and Epidemiology of Henoch-Schönlein Purpura Among Children

Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) is the most common type of vasculitis in children. The factors that trigger the disease are poorly understood. Although several viruses and seasonal bacterial infections have been associated with HSP, differentiating the specific associations of these pathogens with the onset of HSP remains a challenge due to their overlapping seasonal patterns. To analyze the role of seasonal pathogens in the epidemiology of HSP. This cohort study comprised an interrupted time-series analysis of patient records from a comprehensive national hospital-based surveillance system. Children younger than 18 years hospitalized for HSP in France between January 1, 2015, and March 31, 2023, were included. Implementation and relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for the COVID-19 pandemic, such as social distancing and mask wearing. The main outcomes were the monthly incidence of HSP per 100 000 children, analyzed via a quasi-Poisson regression model, and the estimated percentage of HSP incidence potentially associated with 14 selected common seasonal pathogens over the same period. The study included 9790 children with HSP (median age, 5 years [IQR, 4-8 years]; 5538 boys [56.4%]) and 757 110 children with the infectious diseases included in the study (median age, 0.7 years [IQR, 0.2-2 years]; 393 697 boys [52.0%]). The incidence of HSP decreased significantly after implementation of NPIs in March 2020 (-53.6%; 95% CI, -66.6% to -40.6%; P < .001) and increased significantly after the relaxation of NPIs in April 2021 (37.2%; 95% CI, 28.0%-46.3%; P < .001). The percentage of HSP incidence potentially associated with Streptococcus pneumoniae was 37.3% (95% CI, 22.3%-52.3%; P < .001), the percentage of cases associated with Streptococcus pyogenes was 25.6% (95% CI, 16.7%-34.4%; P < .001), and the percentage of cases associated with human rhino enterovirus was 17.1% (95% CI, 3.8%-30.4%; P = .01). Three sensitivity analyses found similar results. This study found that significant changes in the incidence of HSP simultaneously with major shifts in circulating pathogens after NPIs for the COVID-19 pandemic indicated that approximately 60% of HSP incidence was potentially associated with pneumococcus and group A streptococcus. This finding suggests that preventive measures against these pathogens could reduce the incidence of pediatric HSP.

Analysis of COVID-19 Disease Model: Backward Bifurcation and Impact of Pharmaceutical and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

The SEIQHR model, introduced in this study, serves as a valuable tool for anticipating the emergence of various infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 and illnesses transmitted by insects. An analysis of the model’s qualitative features was conducted, encompassing the computation of the fundamental reproduction number, R0. It was observed that the disease-free equilibrium point remains singular and locally asymptotically stable when R0&lt;1, while the endemic equilibrium point exhibits uniqueness when R0&gt;1. Additionally, specific conditions were outlined to guarantee the local asymptotic stability of both equilibrium points. Employing numerical simulations, the graphical representation illustrated the influence of model parameters on disease dynamics and the potential for its eradication across different noninteger orders of the Caputo derivative. In essence, the adoption of a fractional epidemic model contributes to a deeper comprehension and enhanced biological insights into the dynamics of diseases.

Memory effects in disease modelling through kernel estimates with oscillatory time history

We design a linear chain trick algorithm for dynamical systems for which we have oscillatory time histories in the distributed time delay. We make use of this algorithmic framework to analyse memory effects in disease evolution in a population. The modelling is based on a susceptible-infected-recovered SIR—model and on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered SEIR—model through a kernel that dampens the activity based on the recent history of infectious individuals. This corresponds to adaptive behavior in the population or through governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. We use the linear chain trick to show that such a model may be written in a Markovian way, and we analyze the stability of the system. We find that the adaptive behavior gives rise to either a stable equilibrium point or a stable limit cycle for a close to constant number of susceptibles, i.e. locally in time. We also show that the attack rate for this model is lower than it would be without the dampening, although the adaptive behavior disappears as time goes to infinity and the number of infected goes to zero.

A rigorous theoretical and numerical analysis of a nonlinear reaction-diffusion epidemic model pertaining dynamics of COVID-19

The spatial movement of the human population from one region to another and the existence of super-spreaders are the main factors that enhanced the disease incidence. Super-spreaders refer to the individuals having transmitting ability to multiple pathogens. In this article, an epidemic model with spatial and temporal effects is formulated to analyze the impact of some preventing measures of COVID-19. The model is developed using six nonlinear partial differential equations. The infectious individuals are sub-divided into symptomatic, asymptomatic and super-spreader classes. In this study, we focused on the rigorous qualitative analysis of the reaction-diffusion model. The fundamental mathematical properties of the proposed COVID-19 epidemic model such as boundedness, positivity, and invariant region of the problem solution are derived, which ensure the validity of the proposed model. The model equilibria and its stability analysis for both local and global cases have been presented. The normalized sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out in order to observe the crucial factors in the transmission of infection. Furthermore, an efficient numerical scheme is applied to solve the proposed model and detailed simulation are performed. Based on the graphical observation, diffusion in the context of confined public gatherings is observed to significantly inhibit the spread of infection when compared to the absence of diffusion. This is especially important in scenarios where super-spreaders may play a major role in transmission. The impact of some non-pharmaceutical interventions are illustrated graphically with and without diffusion. We believe that the present investigation will be beneficial in understanding the complex dynamics and control of COVID-19 under various non-pharmaceutical interventions.

186 Outbreak of Bacterial Subdural Empyema in Pediatric Patients After Relaxation of COVID-19 Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)

INTRODUCTION: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), in response to the COVID-19 viral pandemic altered viral transmission. In addition, endemic viral strains (influenza, RSV, etc) also experienced unprecedentedly low infection rates. Endemic viral infections typically followed seasonal outbreak spikes, but these spikes were noticeably absent in the COVID-19 control period. After many COVID-19 restrictions were ceased, there was an unusually high spike in endemic viral infections. Many COVID-19 measures were relaxed in the early/middle part of 2021, and we noted a sharp increase in post-viral, complicated sinusitis/subdural empyema cases. METHODS: Data collection was via retrospective chart review of subdural empyema cases at our institution. “Post-viral” was defined as positive viral test or VURI symptoms within 30 days. RESULTS: Our group previously published our case series on the management of subdural empyema. That served as an historical cohort of 16 patients and 23 procedures over an 8 year period (July 2013-June 2021). During the previous academic year, July 2021 to June 2022, there were a total of 14 patients and 19 surgeries, which nearly doubles the previous 8 years combined. The current academic year (to date) has had 9 empyema patients and 12 surgical cases. 100% of patients in the previous 2 years has had historical symptoms of viral URI symptoms or positive viral URI testing within 30 days. None were documented positive for COVID-19. In less than 2 years since many NPIs were lifted, post-viral, bacterial empyema cases have increased dramatically by a fold of 2.56. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs may have created an endemic viral “immunity gap” and an immunologically susceptible population, and thereby could have contributed to a sharp increase in bacterial subdural empyema.

Long-term effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on total disease burden in parsimonious epidemiological models

The recent global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in governments enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. But the NPIs also affected the transmission of viruses causing non-target seasonal respiratory diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In many countries, the NPIs were found to reduce cases of such seasonal respiratory diseases, but there is also evidence that subsequent relaxation of NPIs led to outbreaks of these diseases that were larger than pre-pandemic ones, due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals prior to relaxation. Therefore, the net long-term effects of NPIs on the total disease burden of non-target diseases remain unclear. Knowledge of this is important for infectious disease management and maintenance of public health. In this study, we shed light on this issue for the simplified scenario of a set of NPIs that prevent or reduce transmission of a seasonal respiratory disease for about a year and are then removed, using mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of a suite of four epidemiological models with varying complexity and generality. The model parameters were estimated using empirical data pertaining to seasonal respiratory diseases and covered a wide range. Our results showed that NPIs reduced the total disease burden of a non-target seasonal respiratory disease in the long-term. Expressed as a percentage of population size, the reduction was greater for larger values of the basic reproduction number and the immunity loss rate, reflecting larger outbreaks and hence more infections averted by imposition of NPIs. Our study provides a foundation for exploring the effects of NPIs on total disease burden in more-complex scenarios.

Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19

The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). All reported cases in the Putian epidemic (September 8–October 2, 2021, Delta variant B.1.617.2) and Fuzhou epidemic (October 22–November 18, 2022, Omicron variant BA.5.2) were classified by sex, age group, occupation, and location in this study. Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we established a virus-oriented SVEIR (Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs. The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations. The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19, and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant. Moreover, the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron, such as the basic reproduction number, infection rate, percentage of high-risk cases, and the growth rate. Decreasing tendencies were also identified, such as the average recovery period, the awareness delay, and the percentage of symptomatic cases. This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics. Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.

Incidence and disease burden of autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases after non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 era: A nationwide observational study in Korea.

Infections are considered risk factors for autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIRDs), the incidence of which is considered to have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the incidence of AIRDs and their associated health care services and medical expenses in Korea was investigated. We included all AIRD cases reported between January 2016 and February 2021 based on the National Health Insurance Service data. We evaluated changes in incidence trends for each AIRD before and after NPI implementation (Feb 2020 to Feb 2021) using segmented regression analysis. Changes in health care utilization and medical costs for each AIRD before and after NPI implementation were also investigated. After NPI implementation, monthly incidence rates declined significantly by 0.205 per 1 000 000 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.308 to -0.101, p < .001) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). No significant changes in the incidence of all AIRDs other than SLE were observed before and after implementation. Further, annual outpatient department visits per patient were lower during implementation for all diseases, except juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The prescription days per outpatient visit increased significantly during implementation for all diseases, except JIA and ankylosing spondylitis. During implementation, the total annual medical costs per patient tended to decrease for all diseases, except JIA and mixed connective tissue disease. Implementation of NPIs to contain the pandemic led to a reduction in the incidence of SLE and changed patterns of medical care utilization and treatment cost for most AIRDs.

Trends in the detection of viruses causing gastroenteritis over a 10-year period and impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Trends in the detection of viruses causing gastroenteritis over a 10-year period and impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Changes in Otitis Media During COVID-19.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, various non-pharmaceutical interventions such as individual hygiene practices like hand washing, social distancing, and mandates for the use of masks in public spaces were implemented to reduce the spread of the disease. Otitis media (OM) is a common infectious disease. How the changed environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the prevalence of infectious diseases like OM is not known. This study aimed to investigate how OM prevalence and trends changed during COVID-19 in Korea. OM patient data from 2017 to 2021 were extracted from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database. Patients diagnosed with disease code H66 (suppurative and unspecified otitis media) were selected for analysis. Data on OM prevalence, gender, region, medical institution, and number of ventilating-tube prescriptions were analyzed. All age groups were included, and ages were categorized into 5-year ranges. The number of patients diagnosed with the OM disease code decreased continuously from 2017 to 2021 (1 598 205, 1 560 178, 1 520 948, 983 701, and 734 901). The average OM prevalence per 1000 persons decreased by 45.0% from 30.2 in 2017 to 2019 to 16.6 in 2020 to 2021. The change of OM prevalence was greater for the 0 to 5 age group than other age groups. The decrease in average prevalence per 1000 persons was greatest in the 0 to 5 age group (48.6% decrease from 358.2 in 2017-2019 to 184.1 in 2020-2021). The impact of environmental changes on ventilation-tube insertion was smaller than on OM prevalence. The average number of ventilating-tube insertions decreased by 28.1% from 27 311 in 2017 to 2019 to 19 650 in 2020 to 2021. OM prevalence decreased by 45.0%, and the number of ventilating-tube insertions decreased by 28.1% in Korea during COVID-19.

The multi-dimensional challenges of controlling respiratory virus transmission in indoor spaces: Insights from the linkage of a microscopic pedestrian simulation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission model.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in indoor spaces, where most infection events occur, depends on the types and duration of human interactions, among others. Understanding how these human behaviours interface with virus characteristics to drive pathogen transmission and dictate the outcomes of non-pharmaceutical interventions is important for the informed and safe use of indoor spaces. To better understand these complex interactions, we developed the Pedestrian Dynamics-Virus Spread model (PeDViS): an individual-based model that combines pedestrian behaviour models with virus spread models that incorporate direct and indirect transmission routes. We explored the relationships between virus exposure and the duration, distance, respiratory behaviour, and environment in which interactions between infected and uninfected individuals took place and compared this to benchmark 'at risk' interactions (1.5 metres for 15 minutes). When considering aerosol transmission, individuals adhering to distancing measures may be at risk due to build-up of airborne virus in the environment when infected individuals spend prolonged time indoors. In our restaurant case, guests seated at tables near infected individuals were at limited risk of infection but could, particularly in poorly ventilated places, experience risks that surpass that of benchmark interactions. Combining interventions that target different transmission routes can aid in accumulating impact, for instance by combining ventilation with face masks. The impact of such combined interventions depends on the relative importance of transmission routes, which is hard to disentangle and highly context dependent. This uncertainty should be considered when assessing transmission risks upon different types of human interactions in indoor spaces. We illustrated the multi-dimensionality of indoor SARS-CoV-2 transmission that emerges from the interplay of human behaviour and the spread of respiratory viruses. A modelling strategy that incorporates this in risk assessments can help inform policy makers and citizens on the safe use of indoor spaces with varying inter-human interactions.

Changes in social mixing and attitudes and practices to precautionary measures in a maturing COVID-19 pandemic in six communities in Sudan: a qualitative study

IntroductionWith low COVID-19 vaccination coverage, non-pharmaceutical interventions were critical to mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Sudan. We explored changes in social contact patterns, risk perception, attitudes, and practices toward protective measures during an evolving COVID-19 outbreak in six illustrative communities in Sudan.MethodsThis qualitative study took place in six communities in five Sudanese states using focus group discussions with community members and non-participant structured observations in public spaces between March 2021 and April 2021. A total of 117 participants joined 24 group discussions. We used a two-stage thematic analysis.ResultsThe perceived importance of compliance with individual preventative measures among those who believe in COVID-19 was higher than observed compliance with behaviors in most study sites. Adherence was consistently low and mainly driven by enforced movement restrictions. As restrictions were lifted, social contacts outside the household resumed pre-COVID-19 levels, and risk perception and individual and institutional adherence to protective measures diminished. We identified an environment that is socially and economically unsupportive of preventive practices, compounded by widespread rumours, misinformation, and mistrust in the government-led response. However, we identified new social habits that can contribute to reducing COVID-19 transmission.ConclusionThe unfavourable social and economic environment, coupled with the low visibility of the pandemic and pandemic response, has likely modulated the influence of higher risk perception on adopting precautionary behaviours by individuals. Governments and non-governmental actors should increase the visibility of the pandemic and pandemic response, enforce and incentivise infection control measures in public areas, promote emerging preventive social habits, and actively track and address rumours and misinformation related to COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines.

Evaluation of Strategies for Transitioning to Annual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaigns in the United States.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has proposed administering annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. To evaluate the effectiveness of an annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign, quantify the health and economic benefits of a second dose provided to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older, and optimize the timing of a second dose. An age-structured dynamic transmission model. United States. A synthetic population reflecting demographics and contact patterns in the United States. Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 with age-specific uptake similar to that of influenza vaccination. Incidence, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct health care cost. The optimal timing between the first and second dose delivered to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older in an annual vaccination campaign was estimated to be 5 months. In direct comparison with a single-dose campaign, a second booster dose results in 123 869 fewer hospitalizations (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 994 to 125 742 fewer hospitalizations) and 5524 fewer deaths (95% UI, 5434 to 5613 fewer deaths), averting $3.63 billion (95% UI, $3.57 billion to $3.69 billion) in costs over a single year. Population immunity is subject to degrees of immune evasion for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The model was implemented in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions and preexisting vaccine-acquired immunity. The direct health care costs of SARS-CoV-2, particularly among adults aged 50 years or older, would be substantially reduced by administering a second dose 5 months after the initial dose. Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Notsew Orm Sands Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and National Science Foundation.

Systematic review of empiric studies on lockdowns, workplace closures, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions in non-healthcare workplaces during the initial year of the COVID-19 pandemic: benefits and selected unintended consequences

BackgroundWe conducted a systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions within non-healthcare workplaces and community-level workplace closures and lockdowns on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, selected mental disorders, and employment outcomes in workers or the general population.MethodsThe inclusion criteria included randomized controlled trials and non-randomized studies of interventions. The exclusion criteria included modeling studies. Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and other databases from January 1, 2020, through May 11, 2021. Risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool. Meta-analysis and sign tests were performed.ResultsA total of 60 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 40 studies on COVID-19 outcomes, 15 on anxiety and depression symptoms, and five on unemployment and labor force participation. There was a paucity of studies on physical distancing, physical barriers, and symptom and temperature screening within workplaces. The sign test indicated that lockdown reduced COVID-19 incidence or case growth rate (23 studies, p < 0.001), reproduction number (11 studies, p < 0.001), and COVID-19 mortality or death growth rate (seven studies, p < 0.05) in the general population. Lockdown did not have any effect on anxiety symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = -0.02, 95% CI: -0.06, 0.02). Lockdown had a small effect on increasing depression symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.21), but publication bias could account for the observed effect. Lockdown increased unemployment (pooled mean difference = 4.48 percentage points, 95% CI: 1.79, 7.17) and decreased labor force participation (pooled mean difference = -2.46 percentage points, 95% CI: -3.16, -1.77). The risk of bias for most of the studies on COVID-19 or employment outcomes was moderate or serious. The risk of bias for the studies on anxiety or depression symptoms was serious or critical.ConclusionsEmpiric studies indicated that lockdown reduced the impact of COVID-19, but that it had notable unwanted effects. There is a pronounced paucity of studies on the effect of interventions within still-open workplaces. It is important for countries that implement lockdown in future pandemics to consider strategies to mitigate these unintended consequences.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO registration # CRD42020182660.

Urban community-level stay-at-home orders and small businesses: Evidence from chain restaurants in Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can effectively contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) when implemented promptly and decisively. However, legislative concerns on the economic repercussions of NPIs often delay their rollout. Utilizing proprietary transaction-level data from two major restaurant chains, we quantitatively assess the effects of stay-at-home (SAH) orders implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate a significant 17.5 % decrease in revenue for restaurants affected by these orders, with a more pronounced impact observed in densely populated areas. The study also reveals a notable decline in home delivery revenues, suggesting a comprehensive disruption in both dine-in and delivery services. However, post-lifting of the SAH orders, we document a rapid diminishment in the revenue disparity between affected and unaffected restaurants, followed by a robust rebound in overall performance within several weeks. Our study contributes to the broader discourse on the resilience and adaptability of small businesses in the face of public health crises, providing a foundation for future research and policy formulation in pandemic resilience planning.